Historical cases

Cameroon, whose capital is Yaoundé, lying at the junction of western and central Africa, has an ethnically diverse population that is among the most urban in western Africa [1]. The urban population of Cameroon is growing quickly, and secondary cities are where the majority of this expansion is occurring. Even with high rates of engagement in food production, livestock raising, and a robust informal food marketing system, one of the household food security surveys conducted in 2017 indicated that two-thirds of households experienced severe food insecurity, and from the several historical case studies within the country. Below are some of the major pointed out cases [2].

Historical case studies

Risks

In Cameroon, food insecurity essentially results from inadequate food consumption (10.7% of the population), negative coping strategies based on food consumption or on livelihoods (respectively 10.2% and 17.2% of households), or economic vulnerability, with 33.2% of the population spending 65% or more on food. In addition, 1.1% of households suffer from severe to very severe hunger. Overall, the food insecurity situation has deteriorated from 12.8% in 2019 to 20.4% in 2020. The North West (40.0%), South West (30.7%), Littoral (25.1%), the Far North (24.8%), Adamaoua (22.1%) and the West (20.5%), which are suffering the effects of various humanitarian crises, are the most affected by the food insecurity. In order to ensure the food security of the most vulnerable populations, the following recommendations are made after a National Food and Nutrition Security Survey (ENSAN) in September 2020 [32]:

• Provide emergency humanitarian assistance to food insecure populations severe, especially in the North West, South West, East and Far North regions.
• Ensure the nutritional education of populations living in regions where the diet is not very diversified and presenting micronutrient deficiencies.
• Implement resilience programs to strengthen the livelihoods of vulnerable households over the long term.
• Set up stocks of food products and agricultural seeds throughout the national territory.
• Pay special attention in terms of assistance to female-headed households who tend to be more vulnerable.

Risks on food-security roadmap encountered in crop subsector.

Risks on food-security roadmap encountered in livestock subsector.

References

Historical cases

Uganda, at times referred to as the pearl of Africa, whose capital city Kampala is bordered to the east by Kenya, to the north by South Sudan, to the west by the Democratic Republic of the Congo, to the south-west by Rwanda, and to the south by Tanzania [3]. Despite being estimated that about 70% of Uganda’s working population is employed in agriculture [4], both big and smallholder farmers across the country face a wide range of agricultural production risks, with climate change and variability presenting new risks and vulnerabilities. Below are some of the historical case studies from the country.

Historical case studies

Risks

Food and nutrition security remain Uganda’s most fundamental challenge for human welfare and economic growth. The sorry state of food and nutrition security in Uganda spells the need for strategic interventions to enable the government at various levels to meet its obligations towards the many hungry and under-nourished Ugandans [33]. Food and nutrition insecurity is an important component of the development challenge the nation faces and fundamentally undermines efforts to meet its development vision.

In Uganda, the problem is not so much on access to food but, rather, malnutrition. In comprehensively addressing these problems, Uganda Food and Nutrition Strategy (UFNS) was formulated as a guide to action for the Uganda Food and Nutrition Policy (UFNP) that was approved by the government in 2003. The vision of the UFNS is a hunger-free country without malnutrition [34].

Risks on food-security roadmap encountered in crop subsector.

Risks on food-security roadmap encountered in livestock subsector.

References

Historical cases

Ethiopia is located in the Horn of Africa and has a diverse topography with an altitude ranging from 125 m below sea level in the Danakil Depression to 4,620 m above sea level in the Ras Dashen [5]. The climate varies from a temperate type in the highlands to hot arid in the lowlands. The country is the second most populous in Africa with nearly 120 million inhabitants. Ethiopia’s economy is dependent on agriculture, which accounts for 33 percent of the total GDP, 80 percent of exports, and supports an estimated 75 percent of the country’s workforce [6]. The livelihood of the rural community depends mainly on crop production and livestock rearing. Hence, given the inherent link of these livelihood activities to natural resources, they are largely at the mercy of uncertainties driven by climate change, including extreme events such as drought and flooding in lowland areas of the country. Frequent occurrence of drought and flooding in the country created conducive environmental conditions for various disease outbreaks, tsetse fly, desert locust and invasive aquatic weed infestation, with a consequent significant negative impact on crop, livestock and fish production. The net effects of these climate crises affected the livelihood of people and led millions to the greatest hunger crisis, mass displacement, livestock death and degradation of natural resources including surface water and soil. Scanning the spatial and temporal analysis of climate extremes, which are directly or indirectly responsible for the occurrence of other disasters, is very crucial to strategically design long-lasting interventions and prevention measures for the country and other African countries in general. Hence, the tables below present the major historical cases which resulted in food insecurity in Ethiopia and affected production of export commodities to EU-Africa countries that require sustainable mitigation and prevention measures.

Historical case studies

Risks

Ethiopia is committed to the Sustainable Development Goals and has wholeheartedly participated in the UN Food Systems Summit (UNFSS). The Ethiopian food systems transformation (EFS) course charted by bringing together the public institutions, multilateral and bilateral organizations, the private sector, civil society organizations, and universities and research institutes. The high-level First EFS National Dialogue evaluated the current state of Ethiopian Food Systems and identified the key challenges that need to be addressed; and then identified and prioritized key 22 ‘game changing solutions’ to address the challenges identified in the First Dialogue. The Third National Dialogue then brought together key stakeholders to launch the EFS vision and affirm Ethiopia’s commitment to create a strong and equitable food system [35].

Ethiopia has made great strides in ensuring food security for all citizens. However, extensive research has identified persistent challenges that remain across the Ethiopian food system, from production to distribution to consumption. Production diversity and productivity are inhibited by limited access to appropriate inputs like fertilizer, improved crop seeds and animal breeds and agricultural technologies. Prices of nutrient dense foods have increased significantly over time making healthier diets unaffordable for the majority. Population growth and agricultural intensification has led to soil erosion, land degradation and deforestation. Besides, animal diseases, drought, flood and loss of crop yield due to pests are the challenges too that should be addressed through engagement of stakeholders representing the EU-Africa High Level Policy Dialogue Platform and to gather insights into the challenges often encountered by the farmers during production.

Risks on food-security roadmap encountered in crop subsector.

Risks on food-security roadmap encountered in livestock subsector.

Risks on food-security roadmap encountered in aquaculture subsector.

References

Historical cases

Rwanda is one of the most densely populated countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), with a population of 13 million people and a population density of 525 per km² [7]. Paradoxically, there is overwhelming evidence that off-farm employment is also dependent on agricultural sector productivity and income growth. Fortunately, while the industrial sector is responsive to capital growth, the agricultural sector is more responsive to technological innovations. Hence, sustainable solutions to productivity decline and food insecurity rely on pro-poor technology interventions. Despite this, African countries, especially those located in the eastern African region, have been facing unusual changes in their weather patterns, driven by climate change during the last few decades. Among the disasters, drought and flooding have caused significant crop loss, death of farm animals and damage to the ecosystem. Rwanda has made important development gains in food security and economic growth during the last two decades. However, due to disasters such as frequent drought, heavy rain, flooding, and disease outbreaks, the country has encountered low agricultural productivity leading to food insecurity, which in turn has an impact on people’s livelihoods [8]. Furthermore, the frequent occurrence of drought and flooding created favourable conditions for disease outbreaks like Rift Valley fever, cassava and other crop diseases, and foot and mouth disease, whose spread impacts the economic growth of the country. In view of this, identifying the major historical cases and understanding the conditions leading to their occurrence and trends are important to suggest possible prevention and adaptation strategies for building an agricultural resilience framework across the country and beyond. Ensuring sustainable agricultural development and economic growth under such prevailing challenges requires strong cooperation and partnership both among African countries and with other potential partners such as the EU. Consequently, the tables below present the major historical cases (both livestock and crop) which have significantly resulted in food supply disruptions, with possible mitigation measures, in Rwanda.

Historical case studies

Risks

The following tables summarise the risks and challenges affecting Rwanda’s food-security roadmap, grouped by subsector — crop risks first, followed by those recorded in the livestock subsector.

Risks on food-security roadmap encountered in crop subsector.

Risks on food-security roadmap encountered in livestock subsector.

References

Historical cases

Nigeria [9], whose national capital is Abuja, is located on the western coast of Africa with a diverse geography, with climates ranging from arid to humid equatorial. However, Nigeria’s most diverse feature is its people, with the country having abundant natural resources, notably large deposits of petroleum and natural gas. Despite the country being a leader in various types of agricultural production, such as palm oil, cocoa beans, pineapple, and sorghum, and being a large global exporter in this sector — oil, fruits, nuts, and seeds are among its ten best-performing export categories — the country’s agricultural sector faces many challenges which impact its productivity. Below are some of the documented historical case studies [10].

Historical case studies

Risks

Nigeria faces multiple food security risks that challenge its agricultural resilience framework across three key categories: (i) sustainable intensification, (ii) agriculture and food systems for nutrition, and (iii) expansion and improvement of agricultural markets and trade. Climate change and variability, land degradation, and pest and disease outbreaks threaten sustainable intensification efforts by impacting crop yields and water availability. Malnutrition and micronutrient deficiencies are pressing issues within the agriculture and food systems for nutrition, stemming from limited dietary diversity and inadequate consumption of nutrient-rich foods. Furthermore, post-harvest losses, limited access to credit and financing, and infrastructure deficits hinder the expansion and improvement of agricultural markets and trade. Addressing these risks is crucial to building a more resilient and sustainable agricultural sector in Nigeria, ensuring food security, and promoting economic growth. In the following tables, we highlight some of these risks.

Risks on food-security roadmap encountered in crop subsector.

References

Historical cases

Kenya [11] is a country located in East Africa, bordering the Indian Ocean to the southeast. The country is known for its diverse wildlife and scenic landscapes. The climate of Kenya varies depending on the region: generally, the coastal areas are hot and humid, while the highlands are cooler. The country has two rainy seasons — the long rains from March to May and the short rains from October to December [12]. Kenya is a major producer of tea, coffee, and horticultural products like flowers, fruits, and vegetables.

Historical case studies

Risks

Kenya has many similarities in risks on food security mainly with Ethiopia, Uganda and Rwanda. Thus, we can highlight, without explicitly replicating, the following food security risks:

Nevertheless, especially for Kenya, one of the main risks is the scarcity of water (FS3.2.2) and climate change (FS4.1.9), which have led to unpredictable weather patterns, droughts, and floods that affect agricultural production. Another risk is the over-reliance on rain-fed agriculture, which also contributes to low productivity and food insecurity [36]. Over 80% of Kenya’s lands are classified as arid and semi-arid land (ASAL), based on the relatively low amounts of annual rainfall received. The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis in Kenya focuses on 23 counties/territories (following Table ) that comprise the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASAL) region and whose population is generally the most food insecure given the high level of poverty, high vulnerability to shocks and hazards, particularly climatic shocks linked to rainfall variability [37]. In 2023, corresponding with the harvest season, the Acute Food Insecurity IPC analysis results indicated that out of the 23 counties/territories analysed, 12 are in IPC AFI Phase 3 (Crisis) while the remaining 11 counties are classified in IPC Phase 2 (Stressed). For this analysis, around 4.4 million (27% of the analysed population) are estimated to be in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or above. This includes around 774,000 (5%) people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and 3.6 million (22%) in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). Five counties reported over 50% of their population in IPC Phase 3 or above: Turkana (50%), Garissa (55%), Mandera (55%), Marsabit (55%), and Wajir (55%), which are predominantly pastoral livelihood zones. Latest data shows a likely unprecedented deterioration in Kenya’s food security situation, with over 5.4 million people experiencing acute food insecurity. In the current period, corresponding to the short rain harvest season, a slight decrease in the severity of food insecurity is observed across Kenya’s arid and semi-arid lands (ASAL) areas, which presented four counties in IPC AFI Phase 4 (Emergency) in the previous season (namely Isiolo, Turkana, Marsabit and Mandera) that improved to IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). This is mainly due to the direct impact of the rains on livelihoods in these areas. However, the improvement is expected to be limited in time, and further deterioration is projected in 2023. The provisional alleviation of food insecurity conditions in these areas, however, did not translate into an improvement to the Extremely Critical level (IPC AMN Phase 5) of acute malnutrition in parts of Marsabit (Laisamis) and Turkana South, and other areas, like North Turkana, Wajir and North Horr, are also projected to reach Extremely Critical levels of acute malnutrition.

Population table for the current period

Compared to the same period in 2022, 15 counties were classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis), representing a 43% increase in population in IPC Phase 3 or above. Yet, in 2024 the severity of food insecurity is expected to worsen again: about 5.4 million people (32% of the population analysed) are projected to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC AFI Phase 3 or above), of which 1.2 million people (7%) will likely be in Emergency. This latest projection represents the highest magnitude and severity of acute food insecurity in the ASAL areas in years; urgent action is required to reduce food gaps, protect livelihoods, and prevent and treat acute malnutrition (Figure below).

Map on IPC Acute Food Insecurity Phase Classification in Kenya

In addition, pests and diseases pose a serious threat to food security, with invasive pests like the fall armyworm, Tuta absoluta and desert locusts causing significant damage to crops. Poor infrastructure, such as inadequate storage facilities and poor transportation networks, also puts Kenya’s food security at risk by causing post-harvest losses and reducing access to markets.

Finally, inadequate policies and regulations to guide the food sector and inadequate investment in research and development may hamper the implementation of Kenya’s food security roadmap. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on food security, leading to supply chain disruptions, reduced incomes, and increased prices of food items, particularly for the vulnerable population. Overall, addressing these risks is crucial for successful implementation of Kenya’s food security roadmap.

References